Is the Kuznetsov still saved? Will Russia withdraw from the aircraft carrier club forever?

On December 22, in the East China Sea, the "Joint-2022" joint military exercises held by the navies of China and Russia are in full swing. However, almost at the same time, the Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, which was repaired in the Red Star Shipyard in Murmansk, gave the Russian Navy a big shock with a fire.

▲The fire of the Kuznetsov.

Although Russia claimed that the fire was not big and had been put out and did not cause damage to the hull structure, the fate of this ill-fated master aircraft carrier once again attracted the hearts of many people, and made many people once again doubt whether Russia really has the ability to repair the "Kuznetsov" as before.

In this regard, the author's view is pessimistic. The "Kuznetsov" aircraft carrier is probably too difficult to make a comeback. Even if he can make a lot of money and repair it, it will inevitably leave behind sequelae. His combat effectiveness is once again greatly reduced, becoming a mascot that can only support the storefront.

The number one obstacle in Russia is money. In 2018, Russia plans to allocate 60 billion rubles (about 850 million US dollars) to overhaul the "Kuznetsov". The highlight of the matter is cutting the hull, dismantling the original steam turbine and boiler, and replacing the brand new power system. However, everyone knows what happened next. The hull was cut and the boiler was removed. As a result, the floating ship sank and the crane collapsed and smashed a big hole in the deck of the "Kuznetsov". Then there were a series of unlucky things like fire.

▲The Kuznetsov was not actually completed when the Soviet Union collapsed, and they were all serving with their remaining bodies.

Therefore, the "Kuznetsov" number is equivalent to being smashed halfway through the operation. If you want to repair it, you not only have to repair the damage caused by a series of accidents such as the collapse of the crane and fire, but also have to continue to do half of the "surgery" that have been done before. According to the Russian estimate, there is no 95 billion rubles (about 1.5 billion US dollars) without negotiation.

However, Russia is afraid that it will not be able to pay out the money now. After all, when Russia had some extra money in 2018, it could only pay out 60 billion rubles. Russia, which is now deeply trapped in the Russian-Ukrainian war, obviously must give priority to the limited military expenditure on the Ukrainian battlefield. So far, Russia has lost nearly 1,500 tanks, more than 60 fighter/bomber/attack aircraft, and more than 50 armed helicopters/transportation helicopters in Ukraine. In order to fill the losses, the Russian army has purchased more new weapons this year than the total procurement volume in the past few years. In addition, each of the 300,000 mobilized soldiers has to spend money. It is really hard to imagine where Russia goes to 95 billion rubles to pay out.

▲The losses on the front line are getting bigger and bigger, Russian ArsenalWe have also begun to make efforts to produce new equipment, which has already swallowed up a lot of military spending.

And in this war, the performance of the navy disappointed the top leaders of the Russian side. The Black Sea Fleet flagship "Moscow" came up and gave him a bloody blow. The port behind him was attacked by Ukrainian speedboats. It can be said that it did not make much credit, but it was beaten and suffered a lot. Russia's limited military resources may not give priority to the navy.

And even in the navy, military expenditure will provide excellent support for the construction of nuclear submarines. The repair cost of the "Kuznetsov" is almost as high as the cost of four 22350 frigates (a single ship cost about 400 million US dollars). In all aspects, Russia cannot spend 95 billion rubles of spare money.

Another difficulty in repairing the Kuznetsov lies in the technical problems. When the Kuznetsov was smashed, it was repaired in the PD-50 floating dock. The PD-50 floating dock sank directly. This is the only dock in Russia that is capable of repairing the Kuznetsov. It can no longer be found in Russia that can accommodate the Kuznetsov.

▲PD-50 floating dock and the "Kuznetsov" are also considered as brothers in distress.

Russia had no choice but to dig a huge pit on the muddy ground near the shipyard, and then drove the Kuznetsov into it and started repairing it. This kind of earth pit repair is obviously extremely unreliable. Then the shipyard put two docks together, one big and one small, and made a new dock. So after three years of earth pit repair, the Kuznetsov finally moved into the dock again in August 2022.

However, this temporary dock is too simple, not even a decent large crane, which is really stronger than a pit. Fortunately, the PD-100 floating dock purchased from China was delivered not long ago. The arrival of this floating dock that can carry a 100,000-ton ship also means that the "Kuznetsov" has finally arrived at a reliable home, but unexpectedly, the new home was caught in another fire before it was settled.

▲The Kuznetsov could only be repaired in a pit.

Although the dock matter was finally solved, this was only the first step. The real difficulty was to completely repair the technology, spare parts, skilled workers, etc. needed for the Kuznetsov to complete the technology, spare parts, skilled workers, etc., considering that Russia has made many twists and turns to build the "Super Sun King" for India, looking at Russia's almost terrible shipbuilding industry, it is probably not that easy to completely repair the Kuznetsov.

In addition to economic and technical issues, there is also the third obstacle from the Russian bureaucracy. In June 2021, an agent of the Russian Federation Security Agency suddenly broke into a branch of the 35th Shipyard and confiscated key information such as hard drives and account books. It is said that this is related to the shipyard leaders' embezzlement of the maintenance funds of the "Kuznetsov". And earlier than thatThe general manager of the 10th shipyard was arrested for suspected corruption of 45 million rubles used to repair the Kuznetsov. Corruption has long become a chronic disease of the Russian bureaucracy. The Kuznetsov has been poisoned by this problem in the past and will continue to be poisoned by it in the future.

Even if we put aside the above issues, whether Russia really needs the Kuznetsov is also a question. Regardless of whether Russia is willing to face it, the decline of the Russian navy is an indisputable fact. In the foreseeable future, the Russian navy will definitely decline further. Whether the Russian navy really needs a large aircraft carrier of 60,000 tons is also a question, let alone the Kuznetsov is an old and sick ship who is sick and over 30 years old.

▲The general manager of Murmansk 10th Shipyard was arrested for embezzlement of funds for repairing the "Kuznetsov".

The experience of "Kuznetsov" is actually a microcosm of the decline of the country. Director Makarov of Nikolayev Shipyard said this when facing the unfinished "Varyag" aircraft carrier: "To complete this aircraft carrier, a great country needs to be completed, but this country no longer exists." This sentence also applies to the sister "Kuznetsov". It is not Russia, nor Ukraine, which can completely repair the "Kuznetsov", but the country that no longer exists.