Guo Xin: Why did Bill Gates’ “Venus Plan” fail?
【Introduction】On September 26, the 14th Zhongguancun Talent Forum with the theme of "Passion • Contemplation • Restart - What kind of innovation and entrepreneurship do we need?" was held in Beijing. Experts, scholars, entrepreneurs, entrepreneurs and related high-end professional talents shared and discussed in-depth content on the company's institutional innovation, organizational innovation, management innovation and other content.
Guo Xin
Initiator of Beijing Pegasus Brigade and Chinese President of the China-Europe Industry 4.0 Research Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Guo Xin:
Genomic technology determines the corporate form, andEnterprise form determines the management model
A few days ago, we heard that HTC sold its core business to Google. HTC was similar to Lenovo and Huawei. At its peak, its market share far exceeded Samsung and smartphones once surpassed Apple.
They said: "The difficulty we encounter is that we don't know what mistakes we have made, and the products are just not selling well. You see, all our strategies are Harvard Business School textbook-level cases, from product design to management, marketing, advertising, finance to technology, they are all flawless. But the products just can't be sold."
What made a company that "does not make mistakes" decline? Do you think you don’t make mistakes and you will win if you take every step right? not necessarily.
Jack Ma once said: What will be the world's leading company in the next decade? What is the organizational structure? I don’t know, but there is one thing I know, it’s definitely not Alibaba.
There is another story about the "Venus Project", which is a very grand plan, however...
The Venus Project is the only project I have participated in with Bill Gates. At that time, I was in Gallup China. Gates called me and he saw two of our data: the first is that the TV penetration rate in China is 110%, in other words, there are an average of 1.1 TVs per household; the second is that the computer penetration rate or penetration rate in China is less than 20%.
Bill Gates analyzed through these two data, what are the Chinese doing when buying computers? 70%~80% only do two things: the first is to browse news, the second is to play games. If I make something on a TV, it can be used as a computer and play games, and this thing is a set-top box.
He took this thing to China, and we waved the flag and shouted with him together, including Liu Chuanzhixiang, Zhang Ruimin, and the boss of Great Wall Computer Company. The famous leaders of nine computer companies at that time were all present. Bill Gates says IWe have to put the set-top box on the TV, and all the TVs can meet the needs of Chinese people, and can watch news and play games. There was no WiFi at that time, it might be 2G or 1G.
Beijing Microsoft Research Institute has worked with us on this project. Microsoft spent a lot of time and invested hundreds of millions of dollars, but the project was gone in less than two years.
Is the data wrong? Gallup's data error is less than 0.1%, which is definitely correct. Then why did it go away? What makes such a good company, such a good person, such a good project gone?
This is a picture from Alibaba Research Institute. I especially like this picture. Everyone analyzes what an enterprise is from different perspectives? What is management? What is technology? The technology is still different. I proposed a concept called "genetic technology", and everyone has a technology that they are good at. But genetic technology is the key factor that plays a decisive role.
Only one industrial revolution has only one genetic technology, or up to 1.5.
▌The first industrial revolution was power technology - steam engine, which solved power, realized mechanization, and created factories.
▌The second industrial revolution was large-scale production, and its genetic technology was electricity.
▌The third industrial revolution is IT technology. When I was at IDC, I proposed the concept of "IT genetically modified enterprises" - all enterprises must carry the genes of IT.
▌The Fourth Industrial Revolution starts from now on. It doesn’t matter which company you work in. It’s now called “U disk survival”. You plug it in the morning and there in the afternoon.
For example, I am very busy every day, and I am the director of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the chairman of the Zhongguancun Big Data Department. I also have a venture capital company called Pegasus, and I am also an advisor to Alibaba and Tencent. I hold many meetings every day, and sometimes I don’t even know where I am. In fact, the organization has dispersed.
Liu Feng of the Chinese Academy of Sciences wrote a book. He engaged in artificial intelligence and asked me to give a preface. What I wrote is "The industrial age turns people into machines, and the information age turns machines into people."
IT has three major laws: Moore's Law, which is the law of competition, which can be rapidly iterated, and doubled its performance every 18 months and doubled its price; Gilder's Law, Gilder believes that the number of bandwidth access will double every 6 months in the next 25 years, and the Internet will eventually be free; Metcalff's Law (the inventor of Ethernet, who said the Internet grew in square orders).
Why did Bill Gates' "Venus Plan" fail?
He used Moore's Law, but did not consider Metcalff's Law. When your node was born quickly, you could not replace the value of connections with the value of atoms. Computers in China were developing very rapidly. Although the popularity rate was less than 20% at that time, now, computers, plus mobile terminals, may have reached 200% or even 300%.
Gallop's Q12. It is based on a outstanding creation and invention of Maslow's psychology in management. It believes that if a person wants to realize his own value, he must follow the framework that Maslow needs to say and move up from the bottom layer layer by layer.
However, when the Internet developed and after the existence of Metcalff's law, people suddenly discovered that young people today are no longer based on physiological needs.
Last year we did a research on entrepreneurs with Xu Xiaoping and Yu Minhong. Now entrepreneurs start from the third level of Maslow's psychology.
Let's take a look at your Sesame Credit Score. If you score less than 700 points, then even if you have a strong influence in society, no one on the Internet knows whether you are a good person or a liar.
In the future, will we rely on the central bank's credit score to conquer the world, or will we rely on the Sesame credit score to conquer the world?
The changes in organizational form are highly related to economic development. Which economy is the most active now? The online economy is the most active, and all customers are online.
The Internet economy also has a core technology, which we call genetic technology. What is your future organizational structure? Some time ago, everyone laughed at the post-90s generation for not pouring water for their leaders when they go to work. In fact, the post-90s generation is not "brain-dead" at all. Who made the section chief sema have low credit scores? If the section chief's credit score exceeds him, do you see if he pours water for him?
▲Gallop's "Talent Equation"
Four major factors affecting performance: human talent, interpersonal relationships, expectations and encouragement. The reason why formulas are useful is that there are common features for human management. Don’t think that Maslow’s psychology always starts from the first level. Nowadays, people who start businesses start from the third level of Maslow’s psychology.
There are several "transformations" that everyone should pay attention to:
The first one is socialization, which is actually the original creation of IDC, which is a social enterprise.
The second is platformization. I don’t know if there are any companies in the future, at least there is a platform.
The third is work gamification, and Maslow's third and first layers of psychology are realized at the same time. The characteristics of gamification: the first is to set goals, the second is to talk about strategy, the third is to show the results, and finally rewards and rewards.
Thomas Friedman, the author of "The Earth is Flat", also has a book - Ganoderma lucidum and the Olive Tree, which is very forward-looking. He proposed "three democratizations":
Technology democratization
Information Democratization
Capital Democratization
What is democratization? Democratization means that what everyone can get is worthless.
Bill Gates' "Venus Plan", Motorola's "Star Plan" and HTC's biggest enemies are democratization, which is technology democratization, capital democratization and information democratization.
OriginalOthers don’t know what Bill Gates knows. After the democratization of information, others can instantly know the same thing as him. HTC is very rich, but after the democratization of information and capital, venture capital companies have more than rice shops, and HTC's financial advantages are gone at once.
What will be the core competitiveness of enterprises in the future? It is the ability to integrate resources, not technology, not information, nor capital.
Through the "three democratizations", everyone has the general resources you have. The key is to integrate resources. Whoever can integrate resources will be the strongest in future economic activities and market competition.